Model Picks

We bet five different markets: moneyline, decision, over 1½ rounds, over 2½ rounds, and final round or decision. Each one has its own edge requirement and confidence cap, tuned by testing against past fights.

Decision picks need the biggest edge (8%) because the line is sharp. The round-based props work at a smaller edge (5%) because the books leave more meat on the bone. Backtest returns range from +7% on moneyline (style-adjusted, favorites only, main card) up to +90% on final-round-or-decision, where books underprice that last one badly.

Moneyline is the strictest market — only main-card favorites with ≥5% edge are recommended, and the model is run through a style-archetype adjustment first. Dog bets and prelim moneylines historically lose money so we exclude them entirely.

Featherweight fights are skipped on most prop markets because the model loses on them, but kept on final-round-or-decision where it still wins big (+46%).