CageSide
DashboardEventsOur PicksCommunityFightersFight PredictorSign in

Disclaimer: CageSide is a research tool, not a sportsbook. Picks and "BETs" are statistical model outputs for educational purposes — not gambling advice and not a guarantee of any outcome. Past model performance does not predict future results. Sports betting carries a substantial risk of loss; only wager what you can afford to lose. You must be 18+ (21+ in some U.S. states) to use this site.

Problem with gambling? Call the U.S. National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-GAMBLER (24/7, confidential, free).

© 2026 CageSideAboutTermsPrivacyContact@CageSideApp
  • Home
  • Picks
  • Events
  • Feed
  • You
← UFC Freedom 250
TITLE FIGHTLightweight · 5R · 2026-06-14 · WashingtonRef: Marc Goddard
Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria

9-1 UFC

Lightweight

90%

Win %

70%

Finish %

VS

Tko

to Corner Stoppage

Rd 4 · 5:00

Justin Gaethje
WINNER

Justin Gaethje

11-5 UFC

Lightweight

69%

Win %

44%

Finish %

FIGHT STATS

TopuriaStatGaethje
97/162
Sig Strikes
91/192
111/177
Total Strikes
119/228
1/3
Takedowns
0/5
1
Knockdowns

CAREER STATS

ILIA TOPURIA

70%

FINISH %

4.8

STRIKES / MIN

175 cm

REACH

170 cm

HEIGHT

JUSTIN GAETHJE

44%

FINISH %

6.3

STRIKES / MIN

178 cm

REACH

180 cm

HEIGHT

MONEYLINES

TopuriaBookGaethje
-500BetMGM+360
-550BetOnline.ag+420
-480BetRivers+350
-500BetWay+350
-450Caesars+350
-485DraftKings+370
-460FanDuel+360
-446Pinnacle+371
-480Unibet+350

PROP LINES

Gaethje wins in round 2

BetWay+2000
Caesars+2000
FanDuel+1800
Unibet+1700

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 5

BetWay-225

Gaethje has more significant strikes

BetWay+200

Under 3½ rounds

BetWay-400
Unibet-480
BetRivers-480

Under 2½ rounds

Unibet-265
BetWay-250
BetRivers-265

HIGHLIGHTS

Search YouTube

Full fight & highlights

UFC.com

Official fight page

Search X

Reactions & clips

DISCUSSION· 0

Sign in to add your take.

No comments yet. Be the first.

0
2:32
Control Time
1:32
0
Sub Attempts
0

SIG STRIKES BY TARGET

55(49%)
HEAD
79(45%)
37(82%)
BODY
8(67%)
5(100%)
LEG
4(80%)

SIG STRIKES BY POSITION

68(54%)
DISTANCE
73(44%)
22(76%)
CLINCH
15(71%)
7(88%)
GROUND
3(75%)

Gaethje lands no takedowns

BetWay-275

Over 2½ rounds

BetWay+175
Unibet+185
BetRivers+185

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 4

BetWay-225

Topuria wins in round 1

BetWay+175
Caesars+140
Unibet+195
FanDuel+155

Under 4½ rounds

Unibet-715
BetWay-654
BetRivers-715

Topuria wins by TKO/KO

BetWay-250
BetRivers-205
FanDuel-250
Unibet-205

Under 1½ rounds

BetWay-110
Unibet-112
FanDuel+112
BetRivers-113

Fight ends in round 3

BetWay+500
BetRivers+550
Unibet+550
FanDuel+470

Over 3½ rounds

BetWay+275
Unibet+310
BetRivers+290

Topuria has more takedowns

BetWay-163

Topuria wins in round 2

BetWay+300
Caesars+310
Unibet+325
FanDuel+370

Topuria wins in round 5

BetWay+1800
Caesars+1500
FanDuel+2200
Unibet+2400

Fight ends in round 5

BetWay+1600
BetRivers+5000
Unibet+1900
FanDuel+1600

Over 1½ rounds

Unibet-120
BetWay-120
BetRivers-121
FanDuel-142

Gaethje wins in round 3

Caesars+2500
BetWay+2800
FanDuel+2700
Unibet+2400

Fight goes to decision

BetWay+600
Unibet+500
BetRivers+500
FanDuel+640

Gaethje wins in round 1

Caesars+1400
BetWay+1600
Unibet+1200
FanDuel+1300

Gaethje wins by TKO/KO

FanDuel+500
BetWay+600
BetRivers+500
Unibet+500

Gaethje wins in round 4

BetWay+3300
Caesars+3000
FanDuel+3300
Unibet+3500

Topuria has more significant strikes

BetWay-275

Fight ends in final round or goes to decision

Unibet+370
BetRivers+600

Topuria wins in round 4

BetWay+1000
Caesars+800
Unibet+1300
FanDuel+1700

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 5

BetWay+163

Topuria wins in 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+1200

Over 4½ rounds

Unibet+400
BetWay+400
BetRivers+400

Topuria wins in round 3

Caesars+525
BetWay+550
Unibet+700
FanDuel+550

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 3

BetWay-225

Fight ends in round 4

BetWay+900
BetRivers+3500
Unibet+1000
FanDuel+1200

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 2

BetWay+163

Fight is a draw

Caesars+6000
BetWay+10000
BetRivers+4500
Unibet+4500
FanDuel+5000

Fight ends within 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+900
BetRivers+600

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 1

BetWay-225

Gaethje wins in 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+3300

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 2

BetWay-225

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 3

BetWay+163

Gaethje wins in round 5

Caesars+3300
BetWay+4000
Unibet+5000
FanDuel+4000

Fight ends in round 2

BetWay+275
BetRivers+325
FanDuel+280
Unibet+260

Fight ends in round 1

BetWay+140
BetRivers+1200
Unibet+150
FanDuel+120

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 4

BetWay+163

Gaethje has more takedowns

BetWay+400

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 1

BetWay+163

Topuria lands no takedowns

BetWay-250

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 1

Unibet+160
FanDuel+145
BetRivers+160

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 4

Unibet+1050
BetRivers+1050
FanDuel+1300

Fight ends in submission in round 3

FanDuel+3500
Unibet+3300
BetRivers+3300

Fight ends in submission in round 5

FanDuel+10000
Unibet+7500
BetRivers+7500

Gaethje wins in round 1 or 2

BetRivers+700
Unibet+700

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 3

Unibet+575
BetRivers+575
FanDuel+500

Fight ends in submission in round 4

Unibet+5000
BetRivers+5000
FanDuel+8000

Topuria wins in round 1 or 2

Unibet-125
BetRivers-125

Fight ends in submission in round 2

FanDuel+2700
Unibet+2000
BetRivers+2000

Topuria wins in final round or by decision

Unibet+600

Fight ends in submission in round 1

Unibet+1400
BetRivers+1400
FanDuel+1600

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 5

Unibet+1900
BetRivers+1900
FanDuel+1700

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 2

FanDuel+330
BetRivers+275
Unibet+275

Fight ends in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+330
Unibet+330

Topuria wins in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+430
Unibet+430

Fight ends in round 1 or 2

Unibet-195
BetRivers-195

Gaethje wins in final round or by decision

Unibet+1400

Either fighter wins by submission

FanDuel+750

Gaethje wins in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+1600
Unibet+1600

Either fighter wins by TKO/KO

FanDuel-550

Fight starts round 3

FanDuel+150

Fight starts round 2

FanDuel-166

Fight starts round 4

FanDuel+330

Fight starts round 5

FanDuel+490