CageSide
DashboardEventsOur PicksCommunityFightersFight PredictorSign in

Disclaimer: CageSide is a research tool, not a sportsbook. Picks and "BETs" are statistical model outputs for educational purposes — not gambling advice and not a guarantee of any outcome. Past model performance does not predict future results. Sports betting carries a substantial risk of loss; only wager what you can afford to lose. You must be 18+ (21+ in some U.S. states) to use this site.

Problem with gambling? Call the U.S. National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-GAMBLER (24/7, confidential, free).

© 2026 CageSideAboutTermsPrivacyContact@CageSideApp
  • Home
  • Picks
  • Events
  • Feed
  • You
← UFC Freedom 250
TITLE FIGHTLightweight · 5R · 2026-06-14 · WashingtonRef: Marc Goddard
Ilia Topuria

Ilia Topuria

9-1 UFC

Lightweight

90%

Win %

70%

Finish %

VS

Tko

to Corner Stoppage

Rd 4 · 5:00

Justin Gaethje
WINNER

Justin Gaethje

11-5 UFC

Lightweight

69%

Win %

44%

Finish %

FIGHT STATS

TopuriaStatGaethje
97/162
Sig Strikes
91/192
111/177
Total Strikes
119/228
1/3
Takedowns
0/5
1
Knockdowns

CAREER STATS

ILIA TOPURIA

70%

FINISH %

4.8

STRIKES / MIN

175 cm

REACH

170 cm

HEIGHT

JUSTIN GAETHJE

44%

FINISH %

6.3

STRIKES / MIN

178 cm

REACH

180 cm

HEIGHT

MONEYLINES

TopuriaBookGaethje
-500BetMGM+360
-550BetOnline.ag+420
-480BetRivers+350
-500BetWay+350
-450Caesars+350
-485DraftKings+370
-460FanDuel+360
-446Pinnacle+371
-480Unibet+350

PROP LINES

Fight ends in round 1

BetRivers+1200
BetWay+140
FanDuel+120
Unibet+150

Gaethje wins in round 1

BetWay+1600
Unibet+1200
FanDuel+1300
Caesars+1400

Fight ends in final round or goes to decision

BetRivers+370
Unibet+370

Gaethje wins in round 3

FanDuel+2700
Caesars+2500
BetWay+2800

HIGHLIGHTS

Search YouTube

Full fight & highlights

UFC.com

Official fight page

Search X

Reactions & clips

DISCUSSION· 0

Sign in to add your take.

No comments yet. Be the first.

0
2:32
Control Time
1:32
0
Sub Attempts
0

SIG STRIKES BY TARGET

55(49%)
HEAD
79(45%)
37(82%)
BODY
8(67%)
5(100%)
LEG
4(80%)

SIG STRIKES BY POSITION

68(54%)
DISTANCE
73(44%)
22(76%)
CLINCH
15(71%)
7(88%)
GROUND
3(75%)
Unibet+2400

Fight ends in round 2

BetRivers+1700
FanDuel+280
BetWay+275
Unibet+260

Gaethje wins in round 1 or 2

BetRivers+700
Unibet+700

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 2

FanDuel+330
Unibet+275
BetRivers+275

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 1

BetWay-225

Gaethje wins in round 4

Caesars+3000
FanDuel+3300
Unibet+3500
BetWay+3300

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 2

BetWay-225

Under 4½ rounds

BetWay-654
Unibet-715
BetRivers-715

Over 1½ rounds

Unibet-120
BetWay-120
FanDuel-142
BetRivers-121

Gaethje lands no takedowns

BetWay-275

Under 1½ rounds

BetWay-110
Unibet-112
FanDuel+112
BetRivers-113

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 3

BetRivers+575
Unibet+575
FanDuel+500

Fight ends in round 5

BetRivers+2400
FanDuel+1600
Unibet+1900
BetWay+1600

Gaethje has more takedowns

BetWay+400

Over 4½ rounds

BetRivers+400
BetWay+400
Unibet+400

Gaethje wins in round 2

Caesars+2000
BetWay+2000
Unibet+1700
FanDuel+1800

Topuria wins in round 3

Caesars+525
FanDuel+550
Unibet+700
BetWay+550

Fight ends in round 4

FanDuel+1200
BetRivers+3500
Unibet+1000
BetWay+900

Topuria wins in 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+1200

Fight ends in round 3

BetRivers+550
BetWay+500
Unibet+550
FanDuel+470

Topuria wins by TKO/KO

FanDuel-250
BetRivers-205
BetWay-250
Unibet-205

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 3

BetWay-225

Fight ends in submission in round 2

FanDuel+2700
Unibet+2000
BetRivers+2000

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 4

BetRivers+1050
FanDuel+1300
Unibet+1050

Fight ends within 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+900
BetRivers+600

Fight ends in submission in round 5

Unibet+7500
FanDuel+10000
BetRivers+7500

Gaethje wins in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+1600
Unibet+1600

Under 2½ rounds

BetRivers-265
BetWay-250
Unibet-265

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 1

Unibet+160
BetRivers+160
FanDuel+145

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 4

BetWay+163

Fight ends in submission in round 3

Unibet+3300
FanDuel+3500
BetRivers+3300

Topuria wins in round 4

BetWay+1000
Unibet+1300
Caesars+800
FanDuel+1700

Topuria wins in round 1

Caesars+140
Unibet+195
BetWay+175
FanDuel+155

Fight goes to decision

BetWay+600
Unibet+500
FanDuel+640
BetRivers+500

Fight ends in round 1 or 2

BetRivers-195
Unibet-195

Fight ends in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+330
Unibet+330

Fight starts round 4

FanDuel+330

Gaethje wins by TKO/KO

BetRivers+500
BetWay+600
Unibet+500
FanDuel+500

Fight ends in submission in round 1

Unibet+1400
BetRivers+1400
FanDuel+1600

Gaethje wins in round 5

Caesars+3300
BetWay+4000
Unibet+5000
FanDuel+4000

Topuria wins in round 5

Unibet+2400
Caesars+1500
BetWay+1800
FanDuel+2200

Topuria has more significant strikes

BetWay-275

Topuria wins in round 3 or 4

Unibet+430
BetRivers+430

Fight ends in submission in round 4

Unibet+5000
BetRivers+5000
FanDuel+8000

Over 2½ rounds

BetRivers+185
Unibet+185
BetWay+175

Gaethje wins in final round or by decision

Unibet+1400

Either fighter wins by TKO/KO

FanDuel-550

Topuria wins in final round or by decision

Unibet+600

Under 3½ rounds

BetWay-400
BetRivers-480
Unibet-480

Topuria wins in round 2

Caesars+310
Unibet+325
BetWay+300
FanDuel+370

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 4

BetWay-225

Fight is a draw

Unibet+4500
FanDuel+5000
BetRivers+4500
Caesars+6000
BetWay+10000

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 5

FanDuel+1700
BetRivers+1900
Unibet+1900

Over 3½ rounds

Unibet+310
BetRivers+290
BetWay+275

Topuria has more takedowns

BetWay-163

Fight starts round 5

FanDuel+490

Gaethje wins in 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+3300

Topuria lands no takedowns

BetWay-250

Fight starts round 3

FanDuel+150

Fight starts round 2

FanDuel-166

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 3

BetWay+163

Topuria wins in round 1 or 2

BetRivers-125
Unibet-125

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 1

BetWay+163

Gaethje has more significant strikes

BetWay+200

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 2

BetWay+163

Topuria has more significant strikes in round 5

BetWay-225

Gaethje has more significant strikes in round 5

BetWay+163

Either fighter wins by submission

FanDuel+750