CageSide
DashboardEventsOur PicksCommunityFightersFight PredictorSign in

Disclaimer: CageSide is a research tool, not a sportsbook. Picks and "BETs" are statistical model outputs for educational purposes — not gambling advice and not a guarantee of any outcome. Past model performance does not predict future results. Sports betting carries a substantial risk of loss; only wager what you can afford to lose. You must be 18+ (21+ in some U.S. states) to use this site.

Problem with gambling? Call the U.S. National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-GAMBLER (24/7, confidential, free).

© 2026 CageSideAboutTermsPrivacyContact@CageSideApp
  • Home
  • Picks
  • Events
  • Feed
  • You
← UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
Welterweight · 5R · 2022-09-10 · Las VegasRef: Marc Goddard
Nate Diaz
WINNER

Nate Diaz

10-9 UFC

Welterweight

53%

Win %

37%

Finish %

VS

Submission

Guillotine Choke From Bottom Guard

Rd 4 · 2:52

Tony Ferguson

Tony Ferguson

15-9 UFC

Welterweight

63%

Win %

46%

Finish %

FIGHT STATS

DiazStatFerguson
101/217
Sig Strikes
80/172
101/217
Total Strikes
80/172
0/0
Takedowns
1/3
0
Knockdowns

CAREER STATS

NATE DIAZ

37%

FINISH %

5.3

STRIKES / MIN

193 cm

REACH

183 cm

HEIGHT

TONY FERGUSON

46%

FINISH %

4.9

STRIKES / MIN

193 cm

REACH

180 cm

HEIGHT

MONEYLINES

DiazBookFerguson
+125BetMGM-150
+115BetRivers-143
+110BetWay-138
+125Caesars-150
+130DraftKings-150
+120FanDuel-142
+115Unibet-143

PROP LINES

Diaz wins by TKO/KO

BetMGM+475
BetRivers+510
BetWay+400
DraftKings+425
FanDuel+440
Unibet+510

Ferguson wins by TKO/KO

BetMGM+250
BetRivers+360
BetWay+300
DraftKings+250
FanDuel+320
Unibet+360

Fight is a draw

BetMGM+5000
BetRivers+4500
BetWay+5000

HIGHLIGHTS

Search YouTube

Full fight & highlights

UFC.com

Official fight page

Search X

Reactions & clips

DISCUSSION· 0

Sign in to add your take.

No comments yet. Be the first.

0
0:00
Control Time
0:08
1
Sub Attempts
0

SIG STRIKES BY TARGET

71(40%)
HEAD
23(22%)
21(70%)
BODY
23(85%)
9(100%)
LEG
34(87%)

SIG STRIKES BY POSITION

99(46%)
DISTANCE
80(47%)
2(67%)
CLINCH
0(0%)
0(0%)
GROUND
0(0%)
DraftKings+4000
FanDuel+5000
Unibet+4500

Fight goes to decision

BetRivers-125
BetWay-125
Caesars-110
DraftKings+110
FanDuel-104
Unibet-125

Fight ends in final round or goes to decision

BetRivers-177
Unibet-177

Over 1½ rounds

BetRivers-590
BetWay-400
Unibet-590

Under 1½ rounds

BetRivers+380
BetWay+275
Unibet+380

Over 2½ rounds

BetRivers-305
BetWay-250
Unibet-305

Under 2½ rounds

BetRivers+215
BetWay+175
Unibet+215

Over 3½ rounds

BetRivers-200
BetWay-175
Unibet-200

Under 3½ rounds

BetRivers+148
BetWay+130
Unibet+148

Over 4½ rounds

BetRivers-143
BetWay-138
Caesars-115
FanDuel-122
Unibet-143

Under 4½ rounds

BetRivers+108
BetWay+105
Caesars-115
FanDuel-104
Unibet+108

Fight ends in round 1

BetRivers+575
BetWay+400
DraftKings+380
FanDuel+550
Unibet+575

Fight ends in round 2

BetRivers+650
BetWay+700
DraftKings+550
FanDuel+600
Unibet+650

Fight ends in round 3

BetRivers+800
BetWay+900
DraftKings+800
FanDuel+700
Unibet+800

Fight ends in round 4

BetRivers+900
BetWay+1200
DraftKings+1200
FanDuel+800
Unibet+900

Fight ends in round 5

BetRivers+950
BetWay+1800
DraftKings+1600
FanDuel+1100
Unibet+950

Diaz wins in round 1 or 2

BetRivers+650
Unibet+650

Ferguson wins in round 1 or 2

BetRivers+575
Unibet+575

Diaz wins in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+850
Unibet+850

Ferguson wins in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+950
Unibet+950

Fight ends in round 1 or 2

BetRivers+270
Unibet+270

Fight ends in round 3 or 4

BetRivers+420
Unibet+420

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 1

BetRivers+750
FanDuel+750
Unibet+750

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 2

BetRivers+850
FanDuel+850
Unibet+850

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 3

BetRivers+950
FanDuel+1000
Unibet+950

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 4

BetRivers+1100
FanDuel+1200
Unibet+1100

Fight ends in TKO/KO/DQ in round 5

BetRivers+1200
FanDuel+1600
Unibet+1200

Fight ends in submission in round 1

BetRivers+1700
FanDuel+2000
Unibet+1700

Fight ends in submission in round 2

BetRivers+1600
FanDuel+2100
Unibet+1600

Fight ends in submission in round 3

BetRivers+1800
FanDuel+2400
Unibet+1800

Fight ends in submission in round 4

BetRivers+2200
FanDuel+2600
Unibet+2200

Fight ends in submission in round 5

BetRivers+2200
FanDuel+3300
Unibet+2200

Diaz wins in round 1

BetWay+900
DraftKings+700
FanDuel+1300
Unibet+1200

Ferguson wins in round 1

BetWay+700
DraftKings+600
FanDuel+1000
Unibet+1100

Diaz wins in round 2

BetWay+1200
DraftKings+1100
FanDuel+1300
Unibet+1300

Ferguson wins in round 2

BetWay+1000
DraftKings+1100
FanDuel+1200
Unibet+1300

Diaz wins in round 3

BetWay+1400
DraftKings+1800
FanDuel+1400
Unibet+1400

Ferguson wins in round 3

BetWay+1400
DraftKings+1500
FanDuel+1500
Unibet+1700

Diaz wins in round 4

BetWay+1800
DraftKings+2500
FanDuel+1400
Unibet+1900

Ferguson wins in round 4

BetWay+1800
DraftKings+2000
FanDuel+2100
Unibet+1900

Diaz wins in round 5

BetWay+2200
DraftKings+3500
FanDuel+2100
Unibet+1800

Ferguson wins in round 5

BetWay+2500
DraftKings+2800
FanDuel+2200
Unibet+2500

Fight ends within 0:01-1:00 of round 1

BetWay+1600
DraftKings+1800

Diaz has more takedowns

BetWay+175

Ferguson has more takedowns

BetWay+210

Diaz has more significant strikes

BetWay-105

Ferguson has more significant strikes

BetWay-120

Diaz has more significant strikes in round 1

BetWay-110

Ferguson has more significant strikes in round 1

BetWay-110

Diaz has more significant strikes in round 2

BetWay-110

Ferguson has more significant strikes in round 2

BetWay-110

Diaz has more significant strikes in round 3

BetWay-110

Ferguson has more significant strikes in round 3

BetWay-110

Diaz has more significant strikes in round 4

BetWay-110

Ferguson has more significant strikes in round 4

BetWay-110

Diaz has more significant strikes in round 5

BetWay-110

Ferguson has more significant strikes in round 5

BetWay-118

Fight starts round 2

DraftKings-650
FanDuel-1000

Fight starts round 3

DraftKings-280
FanDuel-370

Fight starts round 4

DraftKings-175
FanDuel-210

Fight starts round 5

DraftKings-135
FanDuel-136

Either fighter wins by TKO/KO

DraftKings+150
FanDuel+145

Either fighter wins by submission

DraftKings+400
FanDuel+500

Either fighter gets points deducted

DraftKings+2000

Either fighter wins by unanimous decision

DraftKings+120

Either fighter wins by split/majority decision

DraftKings+550

Diaz wins in final round or by decision

Unibet+285

Ferguson wins in final round or by decision

Unibet+160